It's Biden, stupid.

A story in yesterday’s New York Times captured my attention.

It is not that voters in the November election are turning MAGA in great numbers.

They just don’t like Joe Biden.

In particular they don’t like Biden when it comes to Gaza.

The latest poll in Arizona from CBS News, conducted by YouGov, offers good news and bad news for Democrats. The party’s likely candidate for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), leads the likely Republican nominee, Kari Lake, by a robust margin. But then there’s the bad news: President Biden also trails Donald Trump in the state.

Yes. Democrats seem to be holding their own in local and state elections.

It is not looking like a red wave.

Yet it is increasingly likely that in spite of everything that could possibly wrong with the Trump campaign, people are not going to vote for Trump.

Democrats are desperately hoping for down ballot candidates pulling Biden along. And that is not likely.

In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin Biden is underperforming the Democratic senate candidates who are ahead in each of those states while Biden is behind or tied with Trump.

So, is it all doom and gloom for Biden?

Not necessarily.

While Biden has so far resisted all calls to jettison his ties to Netanyahu and end his support for the genocide in Gaza, the #ceasefire movement is in reality his lifeline to re-election.

In the survey of Democrats and independents in five battleground states, 2 in 5 voters said a ceasefire and conditioning aid would make them more likely to vote for Biden.

It seems too late for the Democrats to dump Biden as their candidate.

But it’s not too late for Biden to dump his support for Israel.